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Way To Go, Google+ With 20 Million Users

A new ‘Sheriff’ is in town , Zuckerberg. Yes, it’s Google+. How many users of Google+ do you expect to be around? The answer you may be thinking of is probably way off the actual number, and that number is 10 million users! According to the Ancestry.com founder Paul Allen (This Paul Allen is not the one who is a co-founder of the Microsoft).

Allen claimed that according to his latest estimates, the Google+ social network should exceed 10 million users today (12 July, 2011). Google+ launched only two weeks back, but in such a short while on the web, the social network is boosting up quite rapidly, and it is predictable that it will be a suitable rival for Facebook. It can easily achieve the 20 million users mark if the invitation button stays alive.

To describe his Google+ estimates, Paul said “My model is simple. I start with the US Census Bureau data about surname popularity in the U.S., and compare it to the number of Google+ users with each surname. I split the U.S. users from the non-U.S. users. By using a sample of 100-200 surnames, I am able to accurately estimate the total percentage of the U.S. population that has signed up for Google+. Then I use that number and a calculated ratio of U.S. to non-U.S. users to generate my worldwide estimates. My ratio is 1 US user for every 2.12 non-U.S. users.”

Paul says that “Since I have been tracking this same cohort of surnames from my first day, I am able to accurately measure growth over time. A quant has suggested a mathematical formula that I can use to calculate a range of Google users with a 99% level of accuracy.”

The above statics indicate that the Google+ will make it to the Facebook and Twitter in no time.

Photo Courtesy of Aray
Photo Courtesy of Robert
Photo Courtesy of Max